The Tesla Model 2 could arrive no earlier than 2027

Analysts say it still takes three years before significant production volumes are reached

Tesla Model 2, the render of Motor1.com

By: Pietro Cardone

Published by: Brian Potter

Mar 13, 2024 at 7:57am ET

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Tesla was the first Western car manufacturer to talk about the cheap electric car - the £22,000 one, to be clear. Elon Musk and co. had said it would arrive in 2025, but now experts say it could be fully operational by 2027 at the earliest.

This is said by analyst firm Evercore, which postponed its estimates after visiting the Tesla plant in Texas, where the company is also based.

Large volumes need time

According to Bloomberg, Chris McNally, head of the panel of experts who were able to enter the Austin Gigafactory, 'the Tesla Model 2 is increasingly a 2027 story'. So is Tesla also behind schedule on this key project? Not quite.

According to Evercore's report, the Tesla Model 2 may well arrive in 2025, as promised, but it will only reach adequate production volumes two years later. In detail, it is thought that in 2026 Tesla will be able to produce around 500,000 units and in 2027 it could reach over 1 million.

Tesla Cybertruck

In the Texan Gigafactory in Austin Tesla also produces the Cybertrucl

2025: Start of Model 2 production
2026: 500,000 Model 2s produced
2027: 1 million Model 2s produced

For the sake of full disclosure, McNally is not one to tread lightly on Tesla. He is known, for example, to have been sceptical about the stock's chances of growth. Since the day of his statements on this issue, which date back to 2020, the stock has risen 310%.

Elon Musk's position

With respect to what Tesla is experiencing and is about to experience in the near future, Elon Musk stated that Tesla is 'between two big waves of growth'. The CEO is referring to the fact that the first, the one that began with the arrival of the Model 3 and then the Model Y, is in its waning phase, and the second, the one that will be opened by the Model 2, has yet to begin.

Nuova Tesla Model Y (2024), il render di Motor1.com

New Tesla Model Y (2024), Motor1.com render

According to plans, Tesla will start production of the Tesla Model 2 by the end of 2025 at its Austin plant, but lines will most likely also be started in Germany, Mexico and China. The company knows that it also needs to build new factories to follow up on its growth plans according to which it should produce 20 million cars in 2030.

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In this sense, South-East Asia is in pole position. Both because of the conditions offered by the governments of the countries in that region and the growth potential of those markets. Tesla's interest in Malaysia, Thailand and India are well known. But who will come out on top will only be known in a while. Elon Musk has promised to untie the knot by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, again according to estimates, the company is expected to arrive at 2026 with 2.7 million cars sold. That is not much more than the 1.8 million with which it ended 2023.

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